Monday, September 30, 2013

An open letter to BBRY management and directors

I have long been a BlackBerry (BBRY) supporter (or more recently that might be more accurately referred to as an apologist), as both a BlackBerry user (since 2004) and a Canadian.  Over the years I’ve been invested on the short and long side of the company (no material positions in the company at this time), but regardless of my positions (or lack thereof) in the stock I’ve always closely followed the company and its strategy (or lack thereof).  Due to the recent decision to not hold a conference call and the overall poor quality of management and board of director decisions I feel the need to post an open letter in an effort to get some answers.

Thursday, September 12, 2013

3 common things investment professionals just don't understand


           The defining aspect of the information age is our relatively unprecedented access to… well, information.  Unfortunately, information comes in two varieties: information and misinformation.  Investing has always been the modern day version of alchemy (a “science” from medieval times which really just amount to a bunch of guys trying hard to transmute different things into gold), but some investment professionals (which I define as journalists, economists, fund managers, analysts, etc) seem to think that this unprecedented level of information has turned investing into an actual science. 

Or, if you’ll pardon a mixing of metaphors, investing is like reading tea leaves: more leaves don’t necessarily make your prediction any more accurate.  It will always come down to the ability to read tea leaves, the problem for investors is there are so many tea leaves and so many supposed tea leaf psychics out there that it’s becoming impossible to tell the information from the misinformation.  In fact, the more something gets repeated, the more likely it is to be accepted as fact:

Silk, silk, silk.  What do cows drink?

Some percentage of you correctly said “water”, while the rest of you said “milk”.  While that example may be stupid, it is no stupider than these 3 things that you probably believe because you’ve heard them repeated by various investment professionals.  Here are the 3 things that (most) investment professionals just don’t understand:

Investment professionals just don’t understand…